The January-June Monitor by the FederlegnoArredo Study Center, carried out on a representative sample of companies, shows how the wood-furniture sector faced a complex start to the year, with first-half sales contracting (-5.2 percent) on both the domestic (-6 percent) and foreign markets (-4.1 percent). However, forecasts for the rest of 2024 indicate a possible recovery. Companies in the sector continue to work with confidence, hoping to end the year in line with the results achieved in 2023, mainly thanks to exports (+3.7%).  
 

Cautious optimism for the second half of the year

Let's look at the data in more detail. Overall, companies recorded sales totaling 4.65 billion euros in the six-month period, more than 40 percent of which came from exports. However, the overall trend was negative on average, with a contraction of 5.2 percent.

If the first quarter of 2024 had shown signs of weakness, with a significant contraction in sales (-7.6 percent), the half-year still shows a slowdown, albeit more contained.
Claudio Feltrin, president of FederlegnoArredo, explains that “This figure, while still negative, hints at a potential turnaround for the second half of the year, as forecasts suggest. Despite the slowdown in the first half of the year, many companies are looking to the second half of the year, maintaining a certain, albeit cautious, optimism.” 

Exports continue to be crucial to the industry

'24 forecasts, expressed in July, indicate growth for the industry of 0.8 percent, with a positive figure for exports (+3.7 percent) and weak stability for the Italian market (-1.3 percent). These figures certify how the sector is, based on actual orders, revising the forecasts expressed at the beginning of the year. From the +1.5 percent of the supply chain indicated in January 2024, we have moved to the current 0.8 percent; exports continue to be decisive for the sector with a +4.3 percent that becomes +3.7 percent while Italy retreats a little more, from 0.4 percent to -1.3 percent. “I feel it is only right to mention,” explains Feltrin, ”that we are talking about a sector that, despite the turbulence of the markets and the global economy, boasts a 2023 production in line with that of 2019 and at the same time increases in turnover, albeit largely due to inflation and the rise in the price of raw materials. According to September 10 Istat data, July '24 furniture production over July '23 registers -1.2 percent, while the cumulative January-July -4.4 percent. For wood, July over July records a heavy -10.9%, while the cumulative January-July is at -4.1%. Now, aware that it will be the autumn that will make the difference, we also wait to see what measures the government intends to adopt with the next Budget Law, in terms of support for investment and internationalization, green policies aimed at real estate assets and the energy transition more broadly, to understand what 2025 awaits us.”
 

Furniture macrosystem: improvement expected

The furniture macrosystem, which is more significant in values on total sales, declined 3.7 percent compared to the first six months of the previous year. Specifically, sales in Italy fell 3.1 percent, while foreign sales, which account for half of the total, contracted 4.2 percent.  
Despite the negative figure, forecasts indicate a possible improvement in the second half of the year. In detail, the furniture macrosystem is expected to show an increase of 1.4 percent, with a slight decline in Italy (-0.4 percent) offset by growth in exports (+3.3 percent).

Macrosystem wood: the negative trend is reduced

The wood macrosystem has suffered a marked decline: total sales close at -7.8 percent in the first six months of 2024, with a particularly noticeable decline in the domestic market (-9.6 percent), less to foreign markets (-3.2 percent). Against this backdrop, however, it emerges how the negative trend is gradually abating. 
 Despite a decline in sales in Italy (-1.7%), companies hope for an increase in exports (+6%), accounting for 28% of total sales, which should lead the wood macrosystem to end the year in line with 2023 (+0.4%).