2024 proved to be a difficult year for the industry, more so than expected. Expectations of a possible recovery gradually eroded over the quarters, until the minus sign in the third quarter.

This is evidenced by data from the latest Monitor compiled by FederlegnoArredo's Study Center, covering the period January-September 2024, according to which surveyed companies indicate a 4.9 percent decline in sales of the wood-furniture supply chain compared to the same period in 2023.

Both the domestic market (-5.4%) and exports (-4.1%) declined. The furniture macrosystem closes at -3.7%, which summarizes Italy's 3% drop and 4.3% drop in exports. The contraction of the wood macrosystem is heavier, registering an overall -7.5%, which for Italy touches -8.9% while exports a smaller -4.1%.

Year-end closing assumed at -2.7 percent

Claudio Feltrin, president of FederlegnoArredo, explains that “The Monitor's forecasts for the supply chain speak of a year-end at -2.7 percent, with Italy at -3.7 percent and exports at -1.3 percent. Companies are confident of a small turnaround in the final part of the year that could prelude a slow recovery in 2025.”

Wood macrosystem most in distress

Among the different branches of the supply chain, furniture companies report a smaller year-end decline (-1.7 percent), with no particular differences between Italy (-1.9 percent) and abroad (-1.5 percent).

The situation is worse for the wood macrosystem, where the forecast is -4.3%, driven by -5.8% of Italy sales and only partly contained by exports stable at -0.7%. Within the wood system, the panel sector appears to be among the hardest hit, with an 11.4 percent drop in Italy sales, which account for 73 percent of the total, while exports record -4 percent, bringing the overall sector trend to -9.5 percent. The decline affects all segments and is most pronounced for chipboard, plywood and MDF in the domestic market. The packaging system also registers an 8 percent decline due to both a reduction in packaging prices, down 6.3 percent, and a decrease in industrial production, which marks a -2.9 percent on January-September 2023.
 

Negative trends also from Istat data

These rather negative trends are also reflected in the Istat data on industrial production, according to which October '24 on October '23 registers -8% for wood and -5% in the cumulative January-October '24 on '23, confirming the worsening of the climate of confidence already seen last month. For furniture, the decline is smaller, so much so that we can speak of stability, resulting in a -0.8% October '24 on October '23, while the cumulative for the first ten months of the year records a -3.5%. As a whole, manufacturing, of which the wood-furniture sector accounts for 4.2 percent in terms of turnover, recorded -3.6 percent in October, which in the cumulative becomes -3.4 percent.
 

Predictions for 2025 extremely complex

Analyzing these data, Feltrin says that “the Italian market, orphaned by the tax incentives, shows signs of a more pronounced slowdown, compared to exports, which, despite the difficulties due to an economic and political environment that has to deal with more than one ongoing war, seems to be holding up. As shown in the forecasts, in June they indicated a stability of the supply chain at 0.8 percent which has now become a -2.7 percent, on the other hand, exports go from -3.7 percent in June to -1.3 percent now. All this is to say that our supply chain as a whole, thanks to the boost of exports, especially to the U.S., UAE and Saudi Arabia, and the flexibility and speed of our companies to reposition themselves even in new markets, is undoubtedly holding up better than other production systems that are experiencing really dark times. Imagining the industry's 2025, given the situation, is, in any case, an extremely complex exercise.”