The mid-year edition of the CSIL World Furniture Outlook 2024/2025 Report confirms a complex situation for the furniture industry. According to CSIL data, world furniture consumption will continue to show weak demand in 2024, with a possible recovery only in 2025. 

Among prospect markets, India is the fastest growing economy, with an expected increase in furniture consumption. 

The Report, in English, provides an overview of global furniture industry trends with time series of basic data (furniture production, consumption, imports, exports 2014-2023) and furniture market outlook 2024 and 2025 for 100 countries.

A slow recovery

According to data compiled by CSIL in the Report, global furniture production in 2023 was about $470 billion while international trade was -9 percent in U.S. dollars, following stagnation in 2022 followed by exceptional growth in 2021 post-pandemic. 

Growth forecasts for 2024 and 2025 are influenced by the expectation of continued inflation and indicate that recovery will be slow. The outlook for international furniture trade is also negative due to possible further trade restrictions, due in part to growing protectionist sentiment in the United States and persistent difficulties in shipping.

Import/consumption ratio declining

The main importers of furniture are the United States, Germany, France, the United Kingdom and Canada. These countries together account for about half of total imports. The increase in U.S. imports has been the main driver of growth in international furniture trade, with about two-thirds of imports coming from Asia (China, Vietnam, Malaysia). However, the Chinese share of U.S. imports has declined, mainly in favor of Vietnam, due to U.S.-China trade tensions. 

In 2023, furniture imports declined more than consumption, and as a result, the import/consumption ratio, an indicator for assessing the level of openness to international trade flows, fell by two percentage points. The import/consumption ratio of furniture has been consistently above 30 percent since 2014 and increased significantly between 2016 and 2022, returning in 2023 to a level more in line with past experience.

Asia-Pacific region first export market in the world

China is the largest furniture exporter, followed at a distance by Vietnam, Poland, Italy and Germany. Chinese exports account for about one-third of world furniture exports. After a sharp increase in 2021, they declined significantly in 2022 and 2023, while remaining above pre-pandemic levels. 

Three main causes for this decline: slowing destination markets, trade tensions with the United States, and slowing economic growth in China. In addition to exports, the Asia-Pacific region has slowed its growth rate in terms of furniture production compared to the past, but remains the most important region with a share around 50 percent.

India, the fastest growing economy

According to the International Monetary Fund, world GDP growth is expected to be 3.2 in both 2024 and 2025, with emerging and developing economies growing much faster than advanced economies. Downside risks arise from persistent inflation, a possible further slowdown in China's economic growth, volatile commodity prices, and rising geopolitical tensions. 

2023 was also a difficult year for global furniture consumption, and the weakness in furniture demand is expected to continue in 2024, with a possible recovery in 2025. 

India is expected to be the fastest growing large economy in the world. Demand for furniture is growing, fueled by sustained economic growth, an expanding middle class with rising disposable income, and increased real estate activity.